Market Overview
The market is confused. Total capitalization slipped to $2.90T, down roughly $27B in the last 24 hours. Zoom out, and it's uglier — we are down 8.56% over the last week. The narrative right now is a complete mess of contradictions. On one side, you have the Fed easing crypto rules for banks and massive ETF inflows led by Fidelity. On the other? Price action that looks like a wet rag.
We are seeing a classic "bullish news, bearish price" divergence. Usually, that ends in a flush. Bitcoin dominance remains high at 58.80%, meaning alts are taking the brunt of this slow bleed. The macro backdrop — cooling inflation and Trump's tax talk — should be sending us to the moon. Instead, we are chopping sideways while long-term holders use the liquidity to exit.
Bitcoin & Majors
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading down 0.88%, currently stuck in a range that feels like quicksand. We saw a brief push toward $90k, but it was a "false rally" that got swatted down immediately. Here's the data point that matters: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $457.3 million in inflows yesterday. Yet, price fell. Who is selling? Long-term holders and miners are dumping into this institutional demand. If ETF flows dry up and that sell pressure remains, $80k is on the table.
Ethereum (ETH) continues to look like the unloved stepchild. While BTC gets half a billion in inflows, ETH ETFs saw $22.4 million in outflows. Vitalik is talking about "ruthless simplification" and raising the gas limit to 80M to boost speed, but the market doesn't care about tech specs right now. It cares about flows. And the flows are exiting.
Solana (SOL) dropped 3.05% today. Coinbase just announced deep integration with the Solana ecosystem (DEX trading, etc.), which should be bullish. Didn't matter. The market sold the news before it even hit the tape.
Outliers
While the majors bled, a few dinosaurs woke up.
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH) (+3.74%) & Zcash (ZEC) (+3.19%): This is strange rotation. With the SEC cracking down on "third-party mining services" as securities, capital might be fleeing to the original Proof-of-Work forks that feel "safer" from a regulatory standpoint. Or it's just a random dead-cat bounce.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE): The protocol is proposing a massive $1 billion token burn. That's not a small number. Whales are accumulating, though one large holder is sitting on a massive unrealized loss with a liquidation point around $20.65. High risk, high reward.
- XRP (-2.75%): Despite news of a "liquidation imbalance" suggesting bears are exhausted, the price keeps dropping. The technicals might scream reversal, but the tape screams apathy.
Sentiment
My take? Be careful. The divergence between ETF inflows and price action is the biggest red flag on the board. When the market ignores good news (Fed easing, ETF buys), it usually means there's a hidden overhang of supply that hasn't finished dumping yet.
I'm watching the $86,650 level on BTC. If we lose that with volume, the "Santa Rally" is cancelled. We are in a distribution structure until proven otherwise.
