Market Overview
The "Santa Rally" was cancelled, but the "Paperwork Rally" is in full swing. While Bitcoin chops around $88k on thin holiday liquidity, the institutional backend is frantic. Bitwise just dropped filings for 11 new ETFs — spanning AAVE, UNI, NEAR, and others — signaling that the industry expects the regulatory gates to swing wide open in 2026.
Prices are stagnant, but Circle printing $1B USDC in 20 hours tells the real story: capital is staging on the sidelines. We are seeing a classic divergence between price action (bored, chopping) and fundamental market structure (expanding rapidly). This is accumulation disguised as apathy.
Bitcoin & Majors
Bitcoin ($88,000) is playing dead. The $90k resistance remains a brick wall, largely due to the holiday volume vacuum. However, the bid beneath the surface is relentless. Metaplanet scooped another $451M in BTC, and Michael Saylor added 22k coins this month. The ETFs finally snapped a 7-day outflow streak with a ~$355M inflow day. The sellers are exhausted; the buyers are just waiting for the calendar to flip.
Ethereum is in a strange fundamental paradox. Daily transactions just hit a record 2.2 million, and fees are dirt cheap ($0.17). The network is scaling exactly as promised. Yet, price action is anemic (-0.99% against BTC). Grayscale's ETHE seeing inflows is a green shoot, but until ETH reclaims momentum against BTC, it remains a "show me" trade.
Outliers
- $LIT (Lighter): The definition of "sell the news." Following its airdrop and listing, the token cratered 22%. Controversy over insider allocations and withdrawal errors turned this into a textbook PvP dump.
- $ZEC (Zcash): Quietly catching a bid. Cypherpunk Holdings (Winklevoss-backed) bought $29M, now owning nearly 2% of the supply. When treasuries start buying privacy coins, pay attention.
- $NEO: Imploding governance. A public spat between founders Erik Zhang and Da Hongfei over funds is a massive red flag. Avoid until the boardroom clears.
- $USDC: The silent winner. Polygon saw $107M in stable inflows, while Solana bled $643M in stablecoin liquidity. Capital is rotating, likely chasing yield or safety on EVM chains.
Sentiment
The crowd is bored and slightly bearish, expecting a further wash out. That is usually when bottoms form. The Bitwise filings are a massive mid-to-long term bullish unlock that the market hasn't priced in yet. Watch the stablecoin flows on Polygon; smart money is moving there for a reason.
