THE LEAD: The Supply Shock Squeeze
Bitcoin isn't just drifting up; it’s being forced up. The break above $91,000 wasn't organic retail buying — it was a mechanical squeeze. Over $60 million in shorts were liquidated in sixty minutes. This creates a vacuum. Sellers are exhausted. Meanwhile, the floor is rising. BlackRock continues its relentless accumulation via spot ETFs, and Michael Saylor is teasing further acquisitions. We are seeing the "scarcity narrative" play out in real-time as mining supply dwindles. The market is pricing in a supply shock.
MACRO & ON-CHAIN PULSE
Dominance is the metric to watch. Currently at 58.12%, Bitcoin is sucking oxygen from the room. Total market cap sits comfortably above $3.13T.
Interestingly, Ethereum is sending mixed signals. On one hand, ETFs saw $174M in inflows — the best day since December. On the other, on-chain data shows an "Ethereum OG" rotating $24.6M of ETH into WBTC. Long-term holders are hedging. They want exposure, but they prefer the safety of Bitcoin’s collateral profile over Ethereum’s execution risk right now.
SECTOR WATCH & ALPHA
Two clear winners today: Memes and Bitcoin Beta.
- Memecoin Supercycle Redux: Retail attention is shifting back to the casino. BONK (+28%) and PIPPIN (+20%) are leading the pack, driven by trending search volume on exchanges like CoinEx. When BTC breaks resistance, retail doesn't buy BTC; they buy the highest beta asset available. Right now, that's Solana memes.
- Bitcoin L2s: With BTC strength comes the proxy trade. Stacks (STX) jumped 17%. Investors are betting that a $100k BTC creates a massive wealth effect for the layers built on top of it.
MOVERS DECODED
- $BONK (+28.3%): Pure retail mania. Top trending search on CoinEx alongside PEPE. Volume begets volume.
- $STX (+17.8%): The "High Beta Bitcoin" play. BTC moves 1%, STX moves 3%.
- $XRP (+3.5%): Supply certainty. Ripple Labs returned 700M XRP to escrow, removing immediate sell pressure fears following the monthly unlock.
- $ETH (+0.39%): Lagging price action despite $174M ETF inflows. The rotation from ETH to WBTC by whales is capping upside momentum.
- $FLOW (Neutral): Watch out. Funding rates on ByBit hit an anomalous -2.15%. Someone is heavily shorting this asset. Expect volatility.
SENTIMENT & OUTLOOK
The vibe is "cautious euphoria." Bitcoin breaking $91k changes the structure. The SEC commissioner shift adds a regulatory tailwind. However, the heavy short interest on specific alts (FLOW) and the ETH/WBTC rotation suggests smart money is still defensive.
Watch the $92,500 level on Bitcoin. If we clear that, the path to six figures is open. If not, expect a flush of the late longs chasing this meme rally.
