Market Overview
We finally got a bounce. Total market cap is back up to $3.06T (+1.71%), largely because the macro picture stopped looking like a trade war disaster. Trump walked back the 10% EU tariff threat, and crypto (along with the S&P 500) decided it was safe to buy again. Bitcoin surged $1,800 in minutes on the news.
But look under the hood. It's messy.
While price is up, flows are ugly. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of -$874.65M today. That's massive. BlackRock was spotted moving BTC and ETH to Coinbase Prime, which usually means one thing: selling pressure is being loaded into the chamber. Also, Tether burned $3B in USDT. When the printer goes in reverse, liquidity usually follows.
Bitcoin & Majors
Bitcoin ($BTC) is technically up (+0.42%), hovering around the scene of the crime. The narrative is split: retail and rogue nations are buying, institutions are selling. Case in point: Iran's Central Bank reportedly bought $507M in USDT to dodge sanctions, while US ETFs are dumping.
Ethereum ($ETH) managed a +0.68% gain. Vitalik is out there proposing distributed validators to fix staking centralization, and BlackRock is shilling tokenization ($11T market by 2030, apparently). Good long-term noise, but it's not moving the needle today.
Solana ($SOL) is the outlier among majors. While BTC and ETH ETFs bled, SOL ETFs actually saw inflows. Staking ratio hit a record 70%. The network is sticky, even if the price action wasn't explosive today.
Outliers
Some serious alpha — and pain — in the alt markets today.
- $SKR (+287%): The Solana Mobile token. It got the golden ticket — a Binance listing and a massive airdrop cycle. If you own the phone, you're laughing. If you're chasing this candle now, you're likely exit liquidity.
- $SAGA (REKT): The chain is halted. A $7M exploit in a smart contract forced them to pull the plug on the EVM network. Price tanked, stablecoin depegged. Classic DeFi risk.
- $SENT (New Listing): Sentient hit Binance, Bybit, and KuCoin all at once. The AI narrative is still printing, and exchanges are hungry for fresh tickers.
- $RIVER (+132%): Justin Sun threw $8M at it. The market followed. When Justin buys, retail apes in. Just remember to sell before he does.
Sentiment My read: This is a fragile recovery.
The Trump tariff reversal provided a nice sugar high, but the institutional exit from ETFs is concerning. We are down 6% on the weekly timeframe for a reason. Until we see those ETF flows flip green or stablecoin issuance ramp up (instead of burning $3B), this feels like a relief rally in a choppy structure. Keep stops tight.
