Bitcoin Above $100K: Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Caution

Despite a significant sell-off in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin remains above the $100,000 threshold, trading around $103,700 at present. Signs of market exhaustion are emerging, especially over the last 48 hours. While long-term indicators point toward continued bullish momentum for Bitcoin's price, short-term technical models suggest a weakening of bullish vigor, particularly as Bitcoin nears the critical $100,000 support level. This perspective is shared by notable crypto analyst Willy Woo, who highlights both bullish signals and cautionary warnings based on current technical analysis. On the positive side, the Bitcoin Risk Signal—a key long-term indicator—is trending downward, indicating that buy-side liquidity dominates the long-term environment and suggests a relatively low-risk setting for investors looking at extended horizons. Woo emphasizes that the long-term setup remains intact, and Bitcoin trading far above the psychological $100,000 mark lends support to the bullish case. Additionally, current risk models hint at a possibility of Bitcoin reaching above $114,000, which could trigger liquidations of short positions and propel prices higher. Conversely, short-term models are flashing caution. Metrics like Speculation and SOPR suggest that the recent rally from $75,000 to $112,000 is losing strength, with flat capital inflows over recent days raising concerns of potential consolidation. Market participants should be cautious; if strong buying does not resume in the coming week, especially as US markets reopen after a holiday, a bearish reversal could materialize. The critical threshold for this pivot is if Bitcoin fails to break higher; a failure to push above resistance levels may lead to a period of sideways movement or further downside. In summary, while long-term outlooks are still optimistic, near-term risks have increased, emphasizing the importance of confirming buying strength before committing to bullish positions. Investors should monitor upcoming price action closely, particularly in the context of broader market conditions and US market reopening dynamics.