Bitcoin Consolidates Amid Risk Sentiment and Macro Uncertainty

The surprise increase in job openings has boosted risk appetite ahead of the upcoming payrolls report, bringing the S&P 500 closer to the psychological threshold of 6,000. A stable Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number would reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance on a resilient labor market, supporting the expectation that interest rates will remain steady. On the geopolitical and trade front, markets are adopting a cautious stance ahead of anticipated discussions between Xi and Trump. Bitcoin's implied volatility has decreased, with spot prices stabilized around $105,000 and short-term implied volatilities falling below 40%. In the bond market, China’s 10-year and 30-year government bond futures volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since February, indicating widespread risk aversion and a tendency to hold positions rather than trade. Bitcoin remains in a range-bound state, with minimal directional bias suggested by light positioning and normalized skewness. The volatility curve has flattened from mid to long-term maturities since May, aligning with a decline in the VIX index, and has created opportunities for long-vega trading strategies. Notably, September $130,000 call options have been lifted, indicating some upside interest heading into Q3. Looking forward, the third quarter may present added challenges as tariff impacts start to emerge in macroeconomic indicators. Additionally, fiscal disputes concerning the debt ceiling and the “Big Beautiful Bill” could introduce headline risks and volatility. Without a clear catalyst, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will break significantly out of its current price range.