Bitcoin Consolidation with Bullish Bias Near $120,000 Resistance

As I analyze Bitcoin, the current price is approximately $118,000 to $118,500 as of July 31, 2025, with fluctuations within the $117,000 to $120,000 range over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin recently hit an all-time high of $122,838 but is now consolidating with a bullish tilt, indicated by a bullish flag pattern.

From a technical perspective, on the 15-minute timeframe, the price stabilizes around $118,000 with a slight rebound. The moving averages show SMA50 above SMA100 and SMA200, reflecting bullish alignment and support around $117,800. The MACD line is above the signal line, but momentum appears to be weakening, suggesting potential for a short-term sell signal. The short-term trend is upward, with recent ATH, up 10% over a month but slightly down 0.5% over the week.

The flow data indicates no strong inflows or outflows in the past 24 hours; however, whale selling in July has spurred some debate. Market makers (whales and institutions) seem to be accumulating, creating a consolidation phase possibly designed to shake out weak hands. A test of the $120,000 breakout level is likely, potentially leading to a bullish rally.

My overall outlook is neutral-bullish. If Bitcoin breaks above resistance, especially through $120,000, I see a 60% chance of upward movement within 24 hours. However, a pullback to about $117,000 could occur if the MACD confirms a sell signal. Alternatively, if bullish signals strengthen, especially with RSI above 60, MACD crossing upward, and inflows from whales plus ETF demand, there is a 70% probability of a rally towards $122,000-$124,000, especially if interest rate cuts materialize in September.

Conversely, if technical signals turn bearish — with MACD weakening, RSI falling below 50, and outflows accelerating — Bitcoin could decline toward $115,000 with a 40% likelihood of such a correction. A neutral scenario also exists where the market consolidates between $117k and $120k, waiting for catalysts like miner shifts.

In summary, Bitcoin remains in consolidation with a bullish bias, supported by on-chain inflows and technical indicators, but caution is advised owing to overbought signals and potential for a short-term pullback. Monitoring key resistance at $120,000 is essential. Keep in mind, this is not financial advice; always implement stop-loss orders and conduct your own research.