Bitcoin Holds Above $105K as Whale Behavior Signals Potential Market Fragility

I believe that Bitcoin's current steady position around $115,000 masks underlying fragility suggested by realized price data. While the market appears calm, the behavior of Bitcoin whales indicates a potential shift. Old whales, who have held Bitcoin for over a year, have ceased realizing profits, which might mean they are waiting for higher prices before re-entering or selling more aggressively. In contrast, newer whales, often institutional investors who entered the market recently, are just about breaking even, and a price dip below $105,000 could trigger a wave of selling as they aim to protect their gains. The historical trend shows that old whales realized profits during 2022-2024, but since early 2025, their realized cap has plateaued, signaling a pause in profit-taking. Their cost basis of around $39,400 suggests they are still in profit and are likely waiting for a higher entry point. Meanwhile, newer whales at an average cost of $105,300 are close to their breakeven, making them more susceptible to selling if prices fall below that level. The current minimal activity from both groups further indicates an unstable equilibrium, where a decisive move could lead to rapid market reactions. Moreover, the rising deposits of Bitcoin to Binance hint at increasing selling pressure that could precede a downturn. The technical position also points to short-term weakness, especially if Bitcoin drops below the critical $105,000 threshold, potentially leading to panic selling and a wave of leverage unwinding. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above recent resistance and approaches targets around $130,000, old whales may re-engage, expanding their realized profits and possibly fueling further upward momentum. Overall, the market's near-term prospects depend heavily on these key realized price levels and whale behavior, suggesting caution and close monitoring for any significant price moves.