Bitcoin may surge to multi-million highs by 2035, with a plausible bull case near $3M

The Bitwise valuation framework presents a probabilistic view rather than a single forecast. The bear, base, and bull scenarios rest on penetration rates into various demand pools such as institutional investment assets, emerging market currencies, and store-of-value demand. The current price (~$108k) juxtaposed with a 2035 upside of up to nearly $3M implies a valuation path highly dependent on sustained demand, macro liquidity, and acceptance as a treasury reserve or inflation hedge.

The model’s strength lies in mapping multiple channels of demand and their growth rates, but it also exposes sensitivity to key assumptions like penetration rates and CAGR. For example, store-of-value demand shows higher implied returns if adoption accelerates, while orthodox channels (official reserves, corporate treasuries) may evolve more slowly. The wide range between bearish and bullish outcomes signals high uncertainty and the need for scenario-based risk management.

Investors should scrutinize the catalysts and timing. Without concrete, time-bound triggers, these targets risk being realized primarily in a favorable macro regime or in response to sustained institutional allocation. The framework does not guarantee you will reach the upper-middle targets; it merely outlines conditions under which those outcomes become plausible.