Bitcoin Near All-Time High Shows Resilient Market but Underlying Fundamentals Lag

I believe Bitcoin is currently demonstrating resilience, maintaining support just above the $115,000 mark after a period of fluctuation. This stability suggests that the market momentum remains robust, especially with Ethereum experiencing significant gains and other altcoins starting to rally. It could signal an emerging altseason, or perhaps we're seeing a market correction catching up to Bitcoin's prior surge. Analyzing the data, Bitcoin's proximity to its all-time high, with the BTC Z-Score around +1.5σ, indicates strong but not overheated momentum. This level suggests there's still room for growth before reaching overbought conditions, which is favorable for potential upward price movement. The broader market context, including strong altcoin performance and Ethereum's rally, adds to the bullish narrative, although it remains uncertain whether this momentum is sustainable. However, on-chain activity metrics like the Adjusted Price Divergence (APD) reveal that on-chain fundamentals are not fully aligned with price action. With APD still negative and the network's transactional activity lagging, the current rally seems more sentiment-driven than grounded in network usage. This divergence could mean the rally is susceptible to a correction unless on-chain activity picks up or the price consolidates. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's support at about $115,724 and the 50-day SMA at roughly $113,324 provide a solid foundation. A breakout above $118,000 might push toward the $122,077 resistance, possibly setting new all-time highs if momentum persists. Conversely, a breakdown below support levels could see the price test lower supports around $108,983. Overall, while the market remains bullish, caution is warranted until on-chain fundamentals improve to support sustained growth.