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Bitcoin Retrace After Record High — Neutral Signals, Hold for Now

I view Bitcoin’s sprint to $124,089 and the swift retrace below $117,500 as a classic short-term exhaustion move rather than the start of a systemic decline. The $6.6k drop liquidated leveraged longs, but futures premiums (~9%) and options delta skew (~3%) remain neutral, indicating limited panic and no heavy one-sided positioning.

Macro noise (hotter July PPI) and a clear statement from the US Treasury that it won’t expand Bitcoin purchases were the main catalysts for the pullback. Traders appear to be taking profits around the highs rather than capitulating, leaving the market range-bound until a new macro or on-chain catalyst emerges.

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Analysis

Price action shows a quick reversal from all-time highs triggered by a mix of macro data and disappointing policy signals; however, neutral futures premiums and low options skew imply limited fear and...

Recommendation

Maintain a neutral stance: don’t add aggressive new long positions now. Consider accumulating on clear weakness (near prior support levels) or after sustained confirmation above $120K, and watch deriv...

Disclaimer

The Analysis and recommendations provided are for informational purposes only. Any investment decisions should be made at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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