Bitcoin

September 19, 2025 at 10:01

Bitcoin set for expansion: target 150k?

Bitcoin is positioning for a potential breakout. CryptoQuant’s NVT golden cross shows BTC is far from overheated, with the last signal in July delivering solid upside and the current reading near neutral. Historically, dips into the NVT-GC long zone have preceded price gains. BTC is trading a bit above the short-term Realized Price, which suggests the near-term holders are building a base. The scenario calls for 1–2 weeks of consolidation before a push toward new all-time highs. Analysts are penciling in targets from roughly $120k to $150k in the coming months. Pelin Ay labels it a healthy uptrend, while Axel Adler Jr. notes price discovery could return as soon as October. The market is balanced, with STH MVRV Z-scores hovering around zero for 155 and 365 days, indicating the asset is neither overheated nor oversold. The BTC price staying just above the STH Realized Price reinforces the view of a consolidation phase ahead, potentially followed by a rally into October, nicknamed Uptober by some. In short, the setup points to a cautious bullish trajectory, with eyes on a possible move toward ATH within the next few weeks to months.

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Analysis

The thesis rests on a few interlinked signals. First, the NVT golden cross historically marks upside momentum when the metric moves from a spending/usage imbalance toward normalcy, and BTC currently sits near neutral, suggesting room for upside without exuberance. Second, price above the STH Realized Price indicates that short-term holders are anchored, which can support a basing pattern and a measured advance rather than a frantic rally. Third, the near-zero MVRV Z-scores imply balanced risk dynamics, reducing the likelihood of a sudden collapse due to overextension. Fourth, price targets in the $120k–$150k band reflect a consensus among observers that demand could re-accelerate and push new ATHs if macro conditions cooperate and USD strength moderates. However, the setup is not without risk. The move hinges on a successful breakout from a consolidation phase, and catalysts such as macro headlines, ETF flows, or changes in on-chain activity could alter the trajectory. Timing remains uncertain, with October cited as a possible inflection point for price discovery. A cautious approach would monitor whether NVT momentum picks up, whether Realized Price support holds, and whether short-term holders maintain conviction through volatility.

Recommendation

If you’re already long, consider a staged approach: maintain core exposure while using modest pullbacks to add on strength, with tight risk controls if price trades below critical support levels (e.g., Realized Price bands). If you’re not exposed, start with a small position and increase on confirmations such as renewed NVT momentum and a sustained daily close above Realized Price. Set explicit risk thresholds and be ready to reassess if macro factors shift or if on-chain signals weaken.

Disclaimer

The Analysis and recommendations provided are for informational purposes only. Any investment decisions should be made at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.