Bitcoin Spike Reversed; Neutral Derivatives Suggest Watchful Pause

I watched Bitcoin spike to $124,089 and then slide below $117,500 within hours, eliminating about $227M in leveraged longs.

Derivatives metrics stayed muted — futures premiums near 9% and options delta skew around 3% — which tells me this was profit-taking, not panic selling. Macro headlines and a US Treasury denial of expanded BTC purchases removed a key bullish catalyst.

With US debt levels and sticky inflation posing medium-term risks, I see upside tied more to potential central bank balance-sheet expansion in 2025 than to immediate momentum. For now I’m staying cautious and waiting for clearer follow-through above $120K or a constructive retest before adding exposure.