Bitcoin Support at $114K Holds, but Rally Needs Fresh Catalysts to Accelerate

I believe Bitcoin is currently testing a critical support level around $114,000, following a six-day decline. The recent rebound from this threshold has drawn some attention, but it doesn't yet indicate a strong bullish reversal. The broader economic context in the US, with softer-than-expected job growth and a rising unemployment rate, is influencing market sentiment. These signals suggest the Federal Reserve may pause or even reverse interest rate hikes, which could benefit Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and reducing borrowing costs. The inflow into US Bitcoin ETFs has been impressive, surpassing $50 billion by mid-July, reflecting increasing institutional interest and acceptance of Bitcoin as part of diversified investment portfolios. Additionally, geopolitical tensions such as conflicts in the Middle East, ongoing Russia-Ukraine hostilities, and China's trade restrictions are prompting investors to seek assets outside government control, positioning Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset, albeit not yet as trusted as gold. Despite the recent price volatility, on-chain data indicates that long-term holders remain committed, and market activity is shifting toward valuing Bitcoin rather than speculative hype. As long as Bitcoin maintains support above $100,000, the underlying trend appears resilient. Any short-term pullbacks might be part of a larger consolidation pattern, and if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance later this year, a new inflow of capital could drive a substantial rally in the fourth quarter.