Bitcoin Upcoming Surge to $170K by End of 2025 Based on Macro Models

The foundation of this analysis is the macroeconomic environment and the behavior of institutional investors, primarily through inflows into spot ETFs. **What has changed in the market:** - Bitcoin's volatility has decreased - Institutional liquidity share has increased - The volume of coins on centralized exchanges continues to decline These changes form the basis of a model used to evaluate Bitcoin's potential. The straightforward logic of this model is: in a limited supply environment, even moderate demand growth leads to significant price movements. An experienced macroeconomist whose insights are followed has developed a model to estimate Bitcoin's fair value by the end of 2025. This model is based on liquidity analysis on centralized exchanges, inflows into spot ETFs, and parallels drawn with gold in institutional portfolios. The model considers current macrostructure, Fed policy influence, and large investor behavior. The model was constructed by Evgeny – DarthTraders. **His analysis:** **BTC: Updated Model and Targets** In autumn 2024, a basic target of $140,300 was announced for BTC, based on: - Reduction in BTC volume on CEX - Steady inflow into ETFs The model evaluates liquid supply and draws analogies with gold as a reserve asset. **Intermediate results:** - Predicted reduction in BTC on exchanges: 2.17 million BTC → Actual: 2.16 million BTC - Predicted assets in spot ETFs: $143.5 billion → Actual: $135.8 billion Minimal discrepancies reinforce trust in the model. In terms of free float without ETF consideration — about 10.9% of total supply, with ETF-inclusive calculations — 17.2%. This is the volume of BTC that influences market prices. **Negative influence:** The only external factor not incorporated initially was trade conflicts initiated by the Trump administration, which added macro noise and partially slowed growth. **End of half-year forecast:** The $140,300 target remains relevant. The market has about one month to realize it, provided the macro background remains stable with steady ETF flows. **Forecast update:** Considering analogies with gold, if BTC captures at least 40% of the current gold ETF portfolio share (by asset proportion, not capitalization), this could mean inflows up to $227 billion into BTC ETFs. Additional potential new investments are estimated at $80–90 billion. **Scenarios for end-2025:** - Base case: — BTC price: $170,000 — Exchange volume: ~1.96 million BTC - Positive scenario: — ETF inflows > $100 billion — BTC: $200,000 - Conservative scenario: — Macro/geopolitical factors increase pressure — BTC: $145,000 **Why institutional investors continue buying:** Representatives at Token2049 openly discussed strategy revisions: - Including BTC in portfolios at up to 10% - Rationale: Not investing in BTC today is a risk amid debt pressure and currency uncertainty. **Conclusion:** BTC is no longer just hype. It is an asset that fits into the new macroeconomic architecture. If capital flows into ETFs continue, reaching $170–200K by the end of 2025 is a logical outcome, not fantasy. Not holding Bitcoin in a portfolio presents a greater risk for large players given the current macroeconomic situation.