Bitcoin’s Continued Ascent Without Capitulation Indicates Potential for Further Growth

I observe that Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade just below the $120,000 mark, with increased dominance from new investors. Currently, new investor dominance is around 30%, which is only halfway to the overheated levels seen in past peaks at 64% and 72%. This suggests that there’s still potential for BTC to rise further before reaching overbought zones, especially since older holders appear to be gradually selling, but not in a panic mode. The on-chain data indicates that despite increased participation from new investors, the overall market remains balanced. The supply of BTC held by long-term investors, particularly those holding for over three years, isn’t showing signs of massive capitulation. The growth in new investor activity hasn’t yet reached the critical levels—such as the 60-70% range—that historically signaled peaks and subsequent corrections. Therefore, the market still seems to be in a healthy late bullish phase with room for further appreciation. However, I also recognize some warning signs. The decline in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap suggests waning momentum among US investors, which could hint at a cooling interest or at least some consolidation ahead. Coupled with the fact that the recent price is near all-time highs, this could mean that the rally might pause or temporarily stall in the short term. Despite this, positive macroeconomic factors like the correlation between BTC and global M2 money supply expansion still support the bullish outlook. The ongoing inflationary environment could continue to favor Bitcoin as a hedge, potentially pushing prices to new highs in the near future. In summary, Bitcoin's technical and on-chain data point to continued upside potential, but caution is warranted due to signs of waning momentum. A cautious investor should watch for signs of a short-term slowdown, especially if the Coinbase Premium remains negative or if new investor dominance approaches overheated levels, signaling a possible correction.