Bitcoin's Critical Support Level at $117,824 Guides Market Direction Amid Consolidation and Macro Risks

Based on my analysis of Bitcoin's accumulation phase from July 11 to August 1, 2025, the market currently operates with a long/short priority centered around the key level of $117,824. As long as the price remains below this threshold, the bias favors selling; surpassing this level and closing above $119,900 could shift the market into a buying mode. Presently, Bitcoin is consolidating within a broad range, with support near $116,400 and resistance around $119,900.

On-chain indicators reveal that ETF inflows decreased by 80% last week, active addresses declined by 2.4%, and transfers dropped by 23%, signaling a cooling of overall activity. Despite this slowdown, approximately 97% of circulating supply remains in profit, which raises concerns about profit-taking and potential downward pressure. Meanwhile, large Bitcoin wallets have accumulated over 30,000 BTC in the past 48 hours, and open interest in futures markets stands at $45.6 billion, indicating underlying support from institutional traders. However, weekly outflows from major wallets have outpaced inflows, hinting at possible profit realizations among big holders.

Macro factors also influence the outlook. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with inflation accelerating to 2.7% and unemployment stable at 4.1%. Market expectations vary regarding the probability of rate cuts in September, with estimates ranging from about 40% to 61%. These macro uncertainties can lead to increased market volatility.

Regarding scenarios, a bullish case involves a breakout and sustained trading above $117,824 and $119,900, which would restore a long bias and target short-term levels of $125,230 and $141,770. Conversely, a bearish scenario entails a further decline below $116,400, opening the door to medium-term support around $105,000, where intermediate-term buyers might step in. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases, including employment figures on August 1 and CPI inflation on August 12, could trigger sharp market moves. The combination of profit-taking from participants and macroeconomic uncertainty creates conditions prone to false breakouts and rapid reversals.

In conclusion, the market currently balances on a knife’s edge. While the dominant short-term priority suggests downside risk, hidden support from large holders and anticipation of macroeconomic data releases leave room for a reversal if key resistance levels are overcome convincingly. Traders should prepare for volatile swings influenced by macro data and on-chain signals, maintaining cautious positioning in this uncertain environment.