Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Breaks, 2026 Outlook Looks Bright

The factors that once drove Bitcoin's four-year cycle are now weakening. Firstly, the significance of the halving event diminishes by half every four years. Secondly, unlike before, the interest rate cycle does not turn negative but rather remains favorable to cryptocurrencies in recent periods like 2018 and 2022. Thirdly, regulatory improvements and the institutionalization of the market are reducing the risk of crashes. A notable new cycle risk is the rise of companies related to Bitcoin Treasure, which warrants close observation as it could significantly impact the market. Additionally, broader trends are diverging from the previous cycle patterns. Asset migration to ETFs has been ongoing for 5-10 years and started around 2024; broader institutional adoption is just beginning with ETF approvals nationwide and institutions like pension funds and foundations starting to consider cryptocurrencies. Regulatory progress kicked in January 2025 and will continue for years. Wall Street is now just starting to invest in crypto-based assets, with billions expected to be invested over the coming years, especially after the passage of the Genius Act this month. All these factors suggest that, in the long term, the forces favoring cryptocurrencies will overshadow the traditional four-year cycle, indicating 2026 could be a good year. There is a possibility of errors and significant volatility; this scenario is more aligned with a "sustained stable boom" rather than a supercycle. Overall, the outlook over the next few years appears positive.