Bitcoin's Realized P/L Near Average Suggests Lower Reversal Risk

I note that CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr shared a chart showing Bitcoin's realized profit-loss ratio remains close to its long-term average, even as BTC pushes to a new all-time high (ATH). I observe that this on-chain metric indicates profit-taking and unrealized losses are not clustering at extreme levels as they did in prior overheated cycles.

From my perspective, the fact that the realized P/L sits near its average suggests the market is not exhibiting the same froth that historically preceded sharp trend reversals. I therefore view the immediate probability of a major reversal as meaningfully lower compared with past peaks when the metric spiked into extremes.