BTC-alts correlation thesis remains conditional

Checklist of steps I will take: - Translate the input from Russian to English accurately. - Identify the core thesis and sentiment about BTC-alts dynamics. - Assess logical basis and potential risks of the stated correlation. - Provide a concise, expert opinion with actionable takeaways. - Assign the closest applicable trading signal from the approved list and report its ID. - Keep the analysis focused and avoid introducing new content beyond the input context. Translated opinion: There is another familiar phrase, also with a 30k trajectory: - When Bitcoin breaks 50k, altcoins will fly - When Bitcoin breaks 70k, altcoins will fly - When Bitcoin breaks 100k, altcoins will fly - When Bitcoin breaks 110k, altcoins will fly ... - When Bitcoin breaks 250k, altcoins will fly Expert opinion: The speaker is describing a belief in a strong, conditional positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price movements and altcoin performance. While historically BTC bull runs often coincide with altseason, the pattern of “alts fly after BTC breaks key levels” assumes a repeatable causal relationship that may not hold in all cycles. Alts can outperform during certain phases, but they can also underperform during BTC-driven rallies if liquidity flows disproportionately into BTC or if risk appetites shift. The logic lacks explicit timing, breadth of altcoin exposure, and risk controls, which makes it vulnerable to abrupt regime changes (e.g., macro shocks, regulatory moves, or shifting BTC dominance). Key implications: - Correlation can exist, but it is not guaranteed across cycles; execution depends on market regime and liquidity dynamics. - Altcoins are often more volatile and susceptible to drawdowns when BTC corrects or when risk sentiment changes. - Investors should consider diversification, position sizing, and explicit triggers rather than relying solely on BTC breaking levels. Recommendation: - Treat the viewpoint as a conditional hypothesis rather than a certainty; prepare for both continuation and reversal scenarios. - If you plan to trade or allocate to alts, establish clear risk controls: defined entry/exit levels, stop losses, and a maximum allocation limit to avoid concentration risk during BTC-driven rallies. - Monitor BTC dominance, macro momentum, and on-chain signals to gauge the likelihood and timing of any altseason or cross-asset strength shifts. Signal reference: Selected signal: 19: watch (closest match to ongoing, conditional strategy emphasis). Signal ID: 19