Bitcoin

September 19, 2025 at 10:33

BTC cycle debate: peak may be in, but institutional demand challenges traditional cycle theory

Some experts do not rule out that, by analogy with previous cycles, the peak for BTC in this cycle has already been reached... and the crypto winter could lie ahead. Other experts argue that BTC’s adoption among institutions, corporates, and sovereigns—who continually buy BTC—renders the “Theory of Cycles” in crypto obsolete, and that deep BTC corrections are a thing of the past. Bitcoin Performance Since Cycle Low 2015-18 2018-22 2022+ $117k 7.2x off the bottom from 1031 days ago. Days Since Bitcoin Performance Since Cycle Low 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 Days Since 2015-18 2018-22 2022+

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Analysis

The discussion around Bitcoin (BTC) cycles is shifting. On one side, some experts suggest that BTC might have already hit a local or cycle peak, hinting at a crypto winter ahead. On the other side, proponents of ongoing institutional and sovereign demand argue that this adoption disrupts traditional cycle dynamics and could dampen deep corrections.

The observable data cited—BTC performance since prior cycle lows (2015-18, 2018-22, 2022+) with notable multiple-times-ago drawdowns—supports a nuanced view: cycles may still exist, but the catalysts and participants have evolved. Institutional buyers could cap downside and provide steady demand, while retail-driven corrections might be less predictable in the presence of macro liquidity and risk appetite shifts. In short, traditional cycle models may still apply in part, but their timing and amplitude could be altered by new players.

Investors should weigh the possibility of extended consolidation, higher volatility around macro events, and a wider variance in price outcomes due to external demand from institutions, macro trends, and policy developments.

Recommendation

Keep a cautious stance. If you’re exposed, consider trimming risk or using tighter stop levels to manage downside. Monitor institutional flow indicators and macro drivers (rates, liquidity, and geopolitical risk) for catalysts that could shift BTC price action.

Use a layered approach: prefer risk-managed exposure over speculative bets. Consider hedges or partial allocations with clear R/R scenarios and predefined invalidation levels. Avoid over committing to a single narrative—be prepared for both renewed strength and renewed weakness depending on the macro and adoption momentum.

Set explicit triggers for action, such as price levels tied to macro catalysts or on-chain signals, and revisit your thesis regularly as new data emerges.

Disclaimer

The Analysis and recommendations provided are for informational purposes only. Any investment decisions should be made at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.