BTC price risk: short-term holders move to exchanges heightening dip risk

I’m watching a concerning pattern: more than 20,000 BTC have moved from wallets to exchanges at a loss this week, a sign that short‑term holders may be capitulating. This behavior nudges the risk of a price dip for Bitcoin toward the $110k level, as trailing liquidity could amplify selling pressure if the move accelerates.

While on-chain activity showing losses among short-term holders isn’t a guaranteed predictor, it often precedes meaningful pullbacks as holders realize losses and capitulate into safer or more liquid positions. The implied risk is that continued exchange outflows by long‑duration holders could lure momentum traders and shorts to re-enter, potentially pushing BTC lower before demand returns.

From a strategic standpoint, the setup favors caution: if the price tests or breaks below key support zones around $115k–$110k, risk-managed entries or hedging may become prudent, especially for traders who entered during the rally and have limited profit cushions.