Crypto Market Structure Shifts: Bitcoin Cycle Theory Becomes Outdated

The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Eun Joo, has stated that the Bitcoin cycle theory is no longer relevant. He previously based his forecasts on a scheme: buy when whale holdings increase, sell when new participants join retail. Currently, however, large investors are beginning to sell assets among themselves, indicating significant shifts in market structure. In March, he predicted the end of the bullish market but was mistaken and apologized, emphasizing that future analysis will rely on current data rather than outdated models. Some analysts and community members believe the theory is still evolving. They argue it no longer simplifies to just booms and busts but adapts to new conditions—highlighting a longer-term struggle for liquidity and the changing role of institutional players. While the cryptocurrency costs around $115,654, forecasts for year-end vary: a baseline of $135,000, an optimistic scenario of $199,000, and a pessimistic outlook of $64,000. Overall, the market seems overvalued, and current trends call for new analytical approaches.