Ethereum Price Cycle Analysis: Will FOMO Drive ETH to $6,000?

The numbers are real, and psychology repeats itself. Here's some smart analysis to understand where we stand in the cycle. The on-chain data shows that the average purchase price of all Ethereum holders (Realized Price) is $1,931. Approximately 2.27 million ETH are held at an average price of $2,767, representing about 2% of the total supply. Large wallets holding 1,000–10,000 ETH bought at an average of $2,196, while 'whales' (>100,000 ETH, mainly exchanges) bought at around $1,222. Historically, capitulation occurs when the price drops below the realized level, such as in November 2022 when ETH fell to $1,100, and NUPL entered panic zones. Currently, at $3,800, holders with entry points around $2,800 have made +35% profit and may start to realize gains. Behavioral data indicates 80% of new retail investors enter the market within three months after a 40%+ price increase, and 90% do not sell at the peak, waiting for "just a little more," which often leads to losses in subsequent corrections. If profit-taking begins among those who bought around $2,800–$3,000, a correction could happen. However, fresh money from newcomers buying above $4,000 expecting $6,000 could fuel another growth wave, similar to 2021 before reaching $4,800. My view is that the market is a battle between greed and fear. Experienced traders may sell off gradually, while newcomers are driven by FOMO, which will determine whether ETH reaches $6,000 this cycle.