Ethereum's Neutral Derivatives Signal Caution Despite Bullish Price Surge Towards $5K

Ethereum has recently peaked at $4,349, its highest level since December 2021, experiencing a 41% rise over the past month, significantly outpacing the overall crypto market's 9% increase. Despite this bullish price movement, derivatives indicators reveal that traders are maintaining a cautious stance, with limited appetite for leveraged positions above the $4,000 mark as many are securing profits. Typically, monthly futures tend to trade at a 5–10% premium over spot prices, but Ethereum's current premium remains below the level deemed clearly bullish, even in light of substantial spot ETF inflows totaling $683 million last week. Moreover, options market data shows a neutral sentiment, with the delta skew at -3%, far from the -6% threshold that usually signals strong bullishness. Institutional demand appears to be increasing, with large players like BitMine Immersion adding over 317,000 ETH (approximately $1.35 billion) to their reserves, and Sharplink Gaming securing nearly $900 million to expand its ETH holdings to about 600,000 ETH (roughly $2.55 billion). This growing institutional interest could bolster Ethereum's upward momentum. The primary threat to Ethereum reaching the $5,000 level stems from macroeconomic factors. Concerns persist that U.S. import tariffs could hamper global economic growth. However, recent easing of geopolitical tensions, especially following a planned summit between Putin and Trump, offers some optimism. If ETF inflows continue and more corporations increase their Ethereum reserves, the cryptocurrency could sustain its outperforming trend relative to the broader market. Nonetheless, traders should remain vigilant, as the neutral derivatives stance suggests caution despite recent gains.