Historical Seasonal Trends Suggest Bitcoin Might Rally Post-August CPI Data

I observe that Bitcoin tends to experience significant growth in the years following its halving events, specifically in 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025. Historically, the third quarters of these years have closed positively, with increases of +40.6%, +80.41%, +25%, and an ongoing +6.6% for 2025. From a seasonal perspective, August has generally been a strong month for Bitcoin; for the same years, August performances have been quite positive: +30.42%, +65.32%, +13.8%, and currently -0.7% in 2025. September tends to be more stable or correction-oriented, while the last quarter of the year often shows a more bullish trend. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the current macroeconomic environment, especially the expectation of interest rate cuts, supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the coming months. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on August 12 could serve as a catalyst; if the CPI figures are favorable, it could lead to a price movement similar to previous historical patterns, particularly in the second half of August. I believe that the market's perception of interest rate cuts has yet to be fully reflected in Bitcoin prices, which could present a positive opportunity. Overall, based on historical trends, seasonal patterns, and macroeconomic conditions, I see potential for Bitcoin to perform well in the near term, especially if key economic data supports a dovish monetary stance. Investors should monitor CPI data and macroeconomic developments closely to gauge potential breakout or continuation signals.