Market Disappointments and Personal Lessons from ETH Trading

Reflecting on the market cycle, only Sir Gei and I are actively watching ETH fluctuate around 4800, which makes me quite agitated as I keep an eye on RSI divergences and MACD signals, thinking that the price can't keep rising forever. However, Sir Gei remains very confident. He insists that the current booming market, with massive institutional inflows into NFT and DeFi sectors, will push ETH beyond 10,000. He advises me not to rely on technical indicators, claiming I am too shortsighted. His confidence really frustrates me. I respect him as a senior trader, but I can't help but challenge his view. We made a bet: if ETH surpasses 5000 within a month, he wins, and I will treat him to a week of breakfast at Peninsula Hotel. If I win, he must buy me Abalone at Fook Lam Moon and a bottle of 1982 Lafite. In the end, ETH shot up to 4950 but then plummeted below 3300. Although I won the bet, I sensed Sir Gei was deeply unhappy. We didn't talk about the bet or the luxury meals anymore, nor did he mention '10,000 ETH,' which he used to talk about frequently. Looking back, I realize gambling for temporary pride was pointless. It endangered our relationship and made us less open with each other. As a trader, I learn that betting with others over differing market views can backfire easily. Furthermore, despite ETH's rise since 2025, it still hasn't hit 10,000, which makes me feel that the market is cruel and unpredictable, with no one truly knowing where it will go.