Bitcoin

September 1, 2025 at 23:40

Nov 2024 altseason not peaked yet; BTC/ETH breakout lacks euphoria

That means November 2024 wasn't the peak altseason because we haven't seen another euphoria phase since Bitcoin and Ethereum broke out.

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Analysis

Context matters. The idea that an altseason peaks only after a widespread euphoric phase hinges on how traders price risk and liquidity across alts. Since BTC and ETH led the breakout, altcoins often lag until capital rotates back into risk-on assets. The absence of a clear euphoric cycle suggests liquidity remains selective, and investors may still be waiting for clearer catalysts, such as structural improvements in DeFi, layer-2 adoption, or macro relief that broadens participation beyond a small cohort of coins.

From a macro and market structure perspective, altseason dynamics require broad participation and substantial inflows into alt tokens. If BTC/ETH breakout occurred but altcoins didn’t see a parallel sentiment shift, it implies a cautious environment, centralized around risk management and profitability realization rather than speculative fervor. Technicals may show strength in BTC/ETH, but breadth across the alt universe remains shallow, which is a warning sign for a sustained altseason.

Key implications: traders should watch for liquidity expansion, on-chain metrics showing new money entering alt ecosystems, and any catalysts that improve user adoption or utility. Until there is broad-based enthusiasm, the narrative remains that the altseason peak has not arrived.

Recommendation

Stay selective with alt exposure. Prefer assets with clear use cases, liquidity, and robust on-chain activity rather than momentum plays. Define specific entry and exit triggers tied to liquidity shifts or key price levels in multiple alts, not just a single token.

Implement risk controls: predefine stop levels, monitor drawdown limits, and avoid over-concentration in high-beta coins. Consider staged allocations that scale in on confirmations of broader market participation, such as increased exchange inflows or renewed derivatives activity across a diversified basket of alts.

Regularly reassess the macro backdrop and on-chain signals. If a broader euphoric phase materializes with wide participation, you can raise exposure. If the breadth remains narrow, keep risk at or below current levels and favor quality projects with clear catalysts.

Disclaimer

The Analysis and recommendations provided are for informational purposes only. Any investment decisions should be made at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.