Record High Reversed; Momentum Muted Until Policy Clarity

I saw Bitcoin surge to $124,089 then slide below $117,500 within hours, liquidating about $227M of leveraged longs. Despite the drop, futures premiums stayed around 9% and options delta skew is neutral, which tells me the move wasn’t driven by extreme leverage or panic.

Macroeconomic noise—hotter US PPI and slightly lower rate-cut odds—played a part, but the decisive hit came from the Treasury saying it won’t buy Bitcoin for reserves, dashing hopes of government-led demand. Still, the options market shows limited fear of a deep retest.

With US debt high and macro risks persistent, I expect muted momentum near current levels; central bank balance-sheet expansion could revive upside in 2025, but for now I’m watching rather than chasing a breakout above $120K.