Too Many Unknowns: Bitcoin Is Hard to Predict

I can't realistically predict every factor that moves Bitcoin — there are literally thousands, from political manoeuvres between leaders and central bankers to shifting retail sentiment in India.

Trying to model all of them is impractical: noise, rare events and rapidly changing narratives make precise forecasting unreliable.

I therefore focus on managing risk, sizing positions conservatively, and planning for multiple scenarios rather than chasing perfect predictions.